January 2013 Blog Posts (31)

EUR/USD: consolidation in uptrend

The EUR/USD pair has formed another sideways consolidation. Given the overall trend is up it will probably break higher. The next target is at 1.3625, followed by 1.3750 where resistance from a grouping of pivots kicks in. The cluster of lines at 1.3530 underpin current price action and any move down will probably find support there too.…

EUR/USD: breakout higher

The EUR/USD pair has broken out above the sideways consolidation it was in yesterday and continued moving up strongly. Initially it will probably reach 1.3525 where there is tough resistance and then probably 1.3625, which is the extrapolation from the trend-line break. Overall the uptrend remains intact and higher prices are expected.…

The Handoff

baton

If you’re a fan of the summer Olympics, I am sure you have watched plenty of track events – especially the exciting 400 and 800 meter relays.  Four athletes run in each event and hand a baton off to the next athlete until the race is complete.  Although the handoffs are usually done without mishap, it still happens from time to time; they can be simply sloppy to an outright drop of the baton that disqualifies the whole team.

In the…

EUR/USD: temporary pull-back

Substantial resistance directly above price action from the 50, 100 and 200 monthly and weekly MA's at 1.3505, 1.3440 and 1.3525 respectively, could lead to a temporary pull-back. The weakness this morning will probably continue with a target at the top of the range at 1.3400. The bull trend will probably resume eventually, however, with an initial target of 1.3525 followed by 1.3850.…

Secret Trading Tip #4

How to Determine When the Market is Really Trending

How often have you looked at a chart and tried to determine whether or not the market is really trending? How many times have you been fooled by your Stochastics or RSI indicators? How many times have you sold because your oscillators were screaming overbought then watched the market dip a little and then continue higher, stopping you out for another loss? One of the most important things…

Secret Trading Tip #12

The Value Area & Your Trading

What is Market Profile?



Each day the market defines a Market Profile (MP), a Value Area (VA) and a Point of Control (POC), all of which are invaluable to trading the following day. Similar market-derived data over longer time frames is also of great value to day traders and other time frame (OTF) traders. Before I expand on this…

Secret Trading Tip #15

Trailing Stops



The topic of trailing stops comes up on occasion in my Virtual Trading Room. They can often cause some confusion, so let’s take a bit of time to clarify what constitutes a trailing stop and how you can use it in futures trading..

Trailing stops are actually stop loss orders that you move according to certain parameters in your trading plan.

Why Move Stop Loss Orders?…

EUR/USD: consolidating under resistance

The EUR/USD pair is consolidating after re-touching the 1.3400 highs. There is a lot of overhead resistance and it will probably fall temporarily with a target at the range lows at 1.3250. Eventually the bull-trend will probably re-assert with a decisive break above 1.3410 leading to a continuation up to 1.3490. There is substantial resistance from the 50-month and 200-week MA's around 1.3520, which could stall further…

EUR/USD: wave 5

The EUR/USD pair has corrected back to the 38.2% Fibonacci line and then bounced. It is possible the bounce could be an Elliot wave 5 which could re-touch the 1.3400 highs. A decisive break above 1.3325 would provide added confirmation and see a run up to the monthly pivot at 1.3356 and then 1.3400. Alternatively, a move back down to the 38.2% line at 1.3255 is also possible if a range-bound consolidation unfolds.…

EUR/USD: meeting support

EUR/USD has fallen heavily to support and resistance in the1.3260s. It will probably fall further, with the nearby 1.3255 level as the next target down where the 38.2% Fibonacci line and the weekly pivot are clustered. This could be the Elliot wave 4 of the up-move and it will probably end soon with wave 5 retouching the 1.3400 highs, although the monthly pivot at 1.3356 provides an initial target higher.…

EUR/USD: consolidating in up-trend

Eurodollar has rallied up to tough resistance from an old trend-line and the 100 week and 100 month MA's situated at 1.3390 and 1.3415 respectively. It has since pulled back and started consolidating in a range. Overall the bullish trend is intact so a push above the highs and rally to 1.3500 is probable. Alternatively, a move below 1.3330 could see a sell-off down to 1.3270.…

Trillion Dollar Pay Day Loan

payday_loans

Referring to the constant rumors of a Portuguese bailout last year in Europe, Jean-Claude Juncker, the prime minister of Luxembourg, said “When it becomes serious, you have to lie.” 

For weeks the Eurozone ministers lied to the public about the behind-the-scenes bailout that they were working on.  But here in the US the politicians aren’t lying about the next “crisis” and what to do about it, which is the…

Secret Trading Tip #27

Coming Back from a Loss

A friend of mine in the pit had been having a rough time lately when he asked me a typical question among us traders - How do I come back from a loss? Since he had been having a "rough patch" and not just one bad trade, I gave him the following advice that is to be used over a period of time.

First I asked him, "What does your trading journal look like - or maybe you don’t have one?"

He didn’t think it…

Secret Trading Tip #27

Coming Back from a Loss

A friend of mine in the pit had been having a rough time lately when he asked me a typical question among us traders - How do I come back from a loss? Since he had been having a "rough patch" and not just one bad trade, I gave him the following advice that is to be used over a period of time.

First I asked him, "What does your trading journal look like - or maybe you don’t have one?"

He didn’t think it…

EUR/USD: consolidation in uptrend

The EUR/USD rallied strongly yesterday. Today we have had some sideways activity. A decisive break above the range highs at 1.3282 would probably see another bullish leg first to the 1.3307 highs and then even higher to 1.3356, as a much higher eventual upside target is expected in the 1.39s. If the range lows at 1.3248 are broken a move lower could reach to perhaps the trend-line at 1.3170.…